Based on conventional wisdom, voters trust Joseph Biden over Donald Trump when it comes to handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. The latest Fivethirtyeight average shows Trump receiving a 58.1% disapproval rate on his response to the pandemic. Overall, Biden has been leading against Trump in national polls.
Although voters give Biden an overall advantage due to the pandemic, it does not necessarily mean that Trump could not use it to benefit his reelection chances. For one, the pandemic has forced several states to switch to a mainly postal voting scheme. Some have suggested that this is a way to exercise one’s civic duty whilst minimising contact with vulnerable people. These would, however be cumbersome to count as they may take days to transport and must undergo through a strict verification process.
In addition, reports have surfaced that Trump is doing what he could to cast doubt on the entire election process. He keeps suggesting that postal voting undermines the integrity of the election and causes fraud. Pundits have suggested that Trump has appointed a political donor to head the United States Postal Service (USPS). Among the new USPS chief’s agendas is to introduce so-called cost-cutting measures that could slow down the delivery of votes. Democrats in the House of Representatives has already called for an inquiry into these measures.
Even Michael Smerconish, a commentator with an independent shade, has suggested that the 2020 elections may feature an environment ripe for litigation. He and his guests suggest that voters should brace themselves for the real possibility that the actual winner of the 2020 presidential race may not be known for some time, citing the recently-concluded primaries in two New York-based Congressional districts which took six weeks for a winner to emerge.
Moreover, some states require that ballots must reach the counting centre when the polls are otherwise scheduled to close, they must not be merely postmarked on that day.
It is very possible that Team Trump knows it is running out of opportunities to reverse its position enough to win fairly. But given the inside straight Democrats need to pull off (i.e. they need to win 38 electoral votes and two of the largest blue wall states to vote Republican in 2016 will not be enough), Trump could thrive on winning via litigation. Moreover, he has allies running purple state legislatures and some purple state governorships.
But the end game could be for Trump to kick this to the US House. The US Constitution provides a way for the lower chamber to decide the Presidential race. That will happen if the leading candidate fails to attain an absolute majority of electoral votes available, i.e. 270. It is unlikely that Republicans will control it in 2021. Pelosi will likely hold on to the Speaker’s.
But none of those Democratic advantages would matter in choosing a president. Each state’s congressional delegation gets one vote each. Just like in other political endeavours, Democrats tend to concentrate their votes across fewer states. It has devastating consequences for the party. Under the current set-up, Republicans have a majority in 26 US House delegations. Given gerrymandering in Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, the balance of power in terms of which parties control which House delegations is not likely to change come the new Congress in 2021. That means Trump will almost certainly be the victor in such an event.
To make a long story short, the Covid-19 pandemic has forced states to switch to postal voting. Reports suggest Trumps allies are trying to hamstring the USPS to slow down the delivery of such crucial ballots. There would be lengthy counting periods and ensuing litigation on this and other matters, such that nobody would have the required 270 electoral votes by the Constitutional deadline. Therefore, the US House takes over and chooses the next President of the United States, which based on the current rules and expected partisan makeup will likely be the incumbent, Donald J Trump.
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