2010 in preview

Happy New Year Everyone!

The year 2010 will be a big year in politics.  Obviously, it will be because of the mid-terms, the first under an Obama presidency.  Some pundits are concerned about the fate of Democrats in congress given their approval ratings as well as how polarised the electorate has become, especially after the controversial health care bill.

Having said that, Michael Steele, chairman of the RNC said in his book that at this rate, Republicans may not be able to take back the house this year although he clarified that they will be looking into candidates.

Also, we are beginning to see some new open if not tough races.  Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) said that he won’t seek another term and considering it is a conservative western state, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  Also, Blanche Lincoln (D-AK) is expected to be in a tough race in a seat that Democrats have won for quite some time.  Finally, it will be worth watching the Pennsylvania senate race.  Arlen Specter switched to a democrat after he admitted that his chances to win under a GOP ticket were not very bright.

With all the talk on the mid-terms, they come at the heel on the home stretch of the health care debate.  In the next few weeks, it is going to go to conference committee for reconciliation between the house and senate versions.  Liberals are so far in a fighting spirit to get what they want there.  Republicans in the Senate will be determined to muscle the filibuster only to not get the bill passed.  And they will make healthcare a rallying point for their base to vote more of them back in.

Welcome to the Club Specter

If you only think party turncoats are common only outside the US. But guess what? We’ve just witnessed one today.

Sen. Arlen Spencer (now D-PA) switched from being a Republican to a Democrat. Some think that this has more to do about him losing a primary rather than moderate republican principles. Specter himself acknowledged that a private pollster indicated that this would happen especially after he voted in favour of President Obama’s stimulus package.

Am I surprised? Not quite. He has been voting with Democrats. But this is not worth taking for granted. He also shares values with Republicans such as being pro-2nd amendment. Hence, Democrats should be very careful with dealing with him.

What implications does this have? If Al Franken gets a favourable ruling, Democrats now have 60 seats, a Filibuster-proof majority. Also, 3 years ago, Pennsylvania had 2 Republicans and now, they have 2 Democrats. But this isn’t the first time there was a Republican who switched sides. In 2001, James Jefforts of Vermont switched from being a Republican to an Independent giving Democrats a majority even for just a brief time.

To the Democratic party, take care of Specter. He can be as pragmatic a person and knows how to deal with GOP. Moreover, do a good job raising the dough for him.