Revised Assessments on the Remaining Senate Races

Is the race towards 60 still alive?  Theoretically, it is still possible.

Alaska, which earlier in the week I would have tought of as “What the hell were they thinking re-electing a convict?” is likely going to be turned blue.  As I have mentioned, latest counts from Alaska officials give the challenger at least little over a thousand votes against incumbent Ted Stevens.  I’m sure when the dusk settles, the longest serving Republican senator would want a recount.  If he managed to buy decorations for his house and fund the “bridge to nowhere,” I’m sure paying for a recount will be pennies for him should the margin exceed 0.5% (anything tighter than that will be paid for by the state).  Since these developments, I would say 55-45 in favour of Begich. 

Minnesota – court rulings have gone in favour of Al Franken and prior to the start of recount.  The reality is recounts rarely overturn the results.  I believe it is a 51-49 chance in favour of Coleman.

Georgia – We won’t know until sometime in December.  Incumbent Saxby Chambliss probably stands a good chance against Jim Martin.  This is the heart of the deep south, a conservative stronghold.  Democrats have gained ground everywhere in the past 2 election cycles except here.  And with fellow Republicans pouncing on the “Obama-Reid-Pelosi” tandem which signifies a return to an un-checked Washington, it would be enough to scare voters into turning the south blue.  60-40 for Chambliss unless Martin can bring-out first-time African-American voters to the polls.

Even if Democrats beat the odds and run the table, the wildcard is Joe Lieberman.  He was key to why Harry Reid was majority leader by not switching to a Republican.  Democrats have to just put what happened in the campaign behind them and give Lieberman another chance.  They have a huge stake here.

Update on Senate Race

Forget about a filibuster-proof Senate. There are 3 more races outstanding to see if Democrats can increase their majorities. Democrats have at least 57 seats (including Sanders and Lieberman the latter of which I will discuss in a future article). Georgia, Minnesota and Alaska are still left to have a winner projected. From most likely to least likely chances of a pickup, I can say the following:

1. Alaska – reports say that around 4,000 votes separate Stevens from Begich with tens of thousands still left to be count. Frankly it would be shameful if Alaskans re-elect a convict. Win or lose, his days in the Senate will be numbered.

2. Georgia – a run-off is likely and we don’t know who the 3rd party candidate siphoned votes from. But the fact that high profile GOP names will campaign for Chambliss can make it an uphill battle for Democrats.

3. Minnesota – this is a surprise for me. I thought Franken would have this. The reality is that recounts almost never overturn/reverse the final outcome (margin may grow or shrink).