Now It’s Really Even Stevens

We all remember what happened to Ted Stevens, then the longest serving Republican in the US Senate.  He was convicted for failing to declare the value of his gifts.  He was a poster boy for pork.  This all cost him a re-election bid which was decided by a few hundred votes.

In the newest twist, the Justice Department, with none other than the secretary, Eric Holder, announces that they are tossing-out this case. 

What happened?  Well, they made a stunning admission that they didn’t hand over to the other side evidence that is helpful to them.  They are supposed to do this.

While this mistake is seriously aphauling, let’s not forget that this happened not under Obama’s Justice Department, but Bush’s.  And we have to give Mr. Holder credit for acting with integrity to admit this mistake.

Having said all of this, it is worth asking what happens to the future of Mr. Stevens, at least in politics.  Senior Legal Analyst Jeff Toobin says what happened to him was just unfortunate.  His political career appears to be over regardless of the remedies offered.  Let’s not forget, the conviction was handed-down less than a week before the election so the timing couldn’t be worse for him.  But then again, prior to the conviction, opinion polls said he was going to lose by a wider margin than after.  In fact, some polls even showed him slightly ahead with prospective voters thinking the case against him was flawed.  Something to think about…

Politico: Begich wins

Politico has reported that Alaska Mayor has defeated Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens who was recently convicted of 7 felony charges.  (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15754.html)

His margin of victory over the longest serving GOP senator is reported to be at 3,724 votes.  This is likely to be way beyond the maximum threshold of 0.5% margin required for state-sponsored statwide recount. 

Since we can assume that Lieberman will stay in the caucus due to the retention of his key committee, the senate now has 58 Democrats.  We are now awaiting only 2 more races: Minnesota and Georgia which are both tough races for Democrats to win.  If Democrats can snatch both seats away from Republicans, they get their filibuster-proof majority. 

Rest assured, Begich will be the first US Democratic Senator from Alaska since Mike Gravel.

A similar New York Times can be accessed by clicking here: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/us/politics/19cong.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Revised Assessments on the Remaining Senate Races

Is the race towards 60 still alive?  Theoretically, it is still possible.

Alaska, which earlier in the week I would have tought of as “What the hell were they thinking re-electing a convict?” is likely going to be turned blue.  As I have mentioned, latest counts from Alaska officials give the challenger at least little over a thousand votes against incumbent Ted Stevens.  I’m sure when the dusk settles, the longest serving Republican senator would want a recount.  If he managed to buy decorations for his house and fund the “bridge to nowhere,” I’m sure paying for a recount will be pennies for him should the margin exceed 0.5% (anything tighter than that will be paid for by the state).  Since these developments, I would say 55-45 in favour of Begich. 

Minnesota – court rulings have gone in favour of Al Franken and prior to the start of recount.  The reality is recounts rarely overturn the results.  I believe it is a 51-49 chance in favour of Coleman.

Georgia – We won’t know until sometime in December.  Incumbent Saxby Chambliss probably stands a good chance against Jim Martin.  This is the heart of the deep south, a conservative stronghold.  Democrats have gained ground everywhere in the past 2 election cycles except here.  And with fellow Republicans pouncing on the “Obama-Reid-Pelosi” tandem which signifies a return to an un-checked Washington, it would be enough to scare voters into turning the south blue.  60-40 for Chambliss unless Martin can bring-out first-time African-American voters to the polls.

Even if Democrats beat the odds and run the table, the wildcard is Joe Lieberman.  He was key to why Harry Reid was majority leader by not switching to a Republican.  Democrats have to just put what happened in the campaign behind them and give Lieberman another chance.  They have a huge stake here.

Alaska Senate Race Latest

Politico and Anchorage Daily News report that Mark Begich has finally taken the lead with tens of thousands of more votes to be counted.  The latest count gives him an edge by more than 800 votes against incumbent Ted Stevens. Click here for details of the story.

Finally I may not have to be puzzled Alaska at all, perhaps there is hope that state can transcend party lines to give the convicted proponent of the bridge to nowhere what he deserves.  Although I’m sure when the dusk settles, Stevens would want a recount.

Update on Senate Race

Forget about a filibuster-proof Senate. There are 3 more races outstanding to see if Democrats can increase their majorities. Democrats have at least 57 seats (including Sanders and Lieberman the latter of which I will discuss in a future article). Georgia, Minnesota and Alaska are still left to have a winner projected. From most likely to least likely chances of a pickup, I can say the following:

1. Alaska – reports say that around 4,000 votes separate Stevens from Begich with tens of thousands still left to be count. Frankly it would be shameful if Alaskans re-elect a convict. Win or lose, his days in the Senate will be numbered.

2. Georgia – a run-off is likely and we don’t know who the 3rd party candidate siphoned votes from. But the fact that high profile GOP names will campaign for Chambliss can make it an uphill battle for Democrats.

3. Minnesota – this is a surprise for me. I thought Franken would have this. The reality is that recounts almost never overturn/reverse the final outcome (margin may grow or shrink).