After having a mostly good June for Clinton, July has been a different story so far. The e-mail investigation has highlighted why people do not trust her. And the polls seem to provide more headaches for her where they matter.
The latest Quinnipiac University polls in the three quintessential background states show Trump either ahead or tied against Clinton.
- Florida: Trump – 42, Clinton – 39
- Pennsylvania: Trump – 43, Clinton – 41
- Ohio: Trump – 41, Clinton – 41
And the numbers in a four-way race are not good for Clinton. Trump’s edge against Clinton in Florida is five points when other candidates such as Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included. It is worse in traditionally blue Pennsylvania where Trump is ahead by six points when Johnson and Stein are included.
The Pennsylvania numbers are on their own telling. The margin among women has narrowed where Clinton has only a four point advantage with them. Worse, her overall favourability ratings are lower than Trump among voters in the state. Only thirty-one percent favour Clinton and 65% do not, that is a net score of -34 points. Trump has a net unfavourable rating, but only at -19 points. This is a huge reversal from similar ratings in other polls which showed Trump with greater unfavourables.
But the biggest reversal is Florida. She lead Trump by 8 points in the June edition of this poll. One of her biggest swings in the Sunshine state is with Independents. She had a 9-point edge with that group in the previous poll (44-35 for Clinton) but now Trump has a 13-point advantage (43-30). Despite Trump’s remarks about the Orlando massacre which was criticised, he holds a 22-point advantage over Clinton on the question of who can better defeat Islamic State.
The poll in unable to say whether the e-mail issue directly had anything to do. But the poll covers the period of 30th June and 11th July, which covers the period when news of Clinton’s husband, former president Bill Clinton inadvertently met with Attorney General Loretta Lynch came out as well as FBI Director Comey’s remarks about Clinton’s ‘extremely careless’ e-mail practices.
To make matters worse for Clinton, Trump is winning over these numbers at a worst-possible time: before the convention. Traditionally, parties experience a significant post-convention bump and Trump is beginning to raise the bar again. I think we are getting to a point similar in 1988 or 2004 where the Democrat never recovered. Possibly, we could also enter the point similar to the Philippines where its insurgent candidate had a sustained lead that will only widen as well as the Brexit vote where the ‘remain’ side hardly saw the light of day after the ‘leave’ side overtook it.
My suspicion is the trifecta of Ts are haunting Clinton greater than they have: trade, trustworthiness, and thirst for change. And such headwinds will only get greater. What do I think is significantly different this time? Trust is a very difficult (if not impossible) thing to get back, especially if the FBI said that everything Clinton told them was found to not be true. It does not matter to the electorate what legally constitutes lying: it is enough that saying some things that weren’t true to speak of someone’s integrity. I also suspect that the FBI investigation has reminded Republicans of why they should support Trump in the first place: they don’t like Clinton.
Although the Clintons may have gotten lucky the last time by dismissing these as witch hunts and conspiracy theories, this is an insurgent’s year. Couple the issue of trust with thirst for change (something echoed in those swing state polls) and it will be difficult to see Clinton leading again. Maybe it is only now that the polls are reflecting the difficulties Clinton faces that only a few saw coming.
Finally, Clinton’s poll troubles don’t end there. In Iowa, a state that has voted Democrat five in the last six elections, a recent poll gives Trump a slight edge. Factoring those polls in, plus Clinton’s rust belt quagmire, which speaks to the other T in my trifecta (trade), Trump could be the first Republican to break 300 electoral votes. I wouldn’t underestimate Michigan and Wisconsin.
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